The Edo State gubernatorial election is almost here but, even more than the fact that it is one of the elections to be conducted outside an official ‘election’ year is the simmering tension threatening to boil over and engulf Nigeria’s ruling party in that axes. Jubal Kanayo writes.
When Obaseki Godwin, the present governor of Edo State, swept into office in 2016, the odds were stacked up against him, until the then incumbent governor, Adams Oshiomhole, stepped in to bulldoze away the major obstacles.
Oshiomhole stepped then because, according to him, he did not want the former Secretary to the Edo State government, Osagie Ize-Iyamu, to become his successor.
Everything possible was done to ensure Obaseki’s emergence. It came to pass that he won. Those with grouses were patted on the back and sent away; the grudge unsettled, the reason for the grudge unaddressed.
It is 2020, four years after and another election is due. Sadly, this time, the tables have turned and Obaseki is no more the favourite son he once was. As funny and bizarre as it sounds, Ize-Iyamu, who was denounced and blacklisted the last time is the one everyone is queuing behind. How times have changed.
Upheaval
A protracted political fight between Oshiomhole and Obaseki has crippled the Edo State House of Assembly (14 lawmakers elected on the APC platform are yet to be inaugurated since June 2019) and factionalised the APC in the state.
Before he defected to PDP, Ize-Iyamu, was not just a chieftain of the APC; he directed the campaign for the election of Oshiomhole as Edo governor.
Ize-Iyamu’s return to the APC has been a major threat to Obaseki’s second term ambition. Add to that the news that seven APC governorship aspirants in the state are said to have stepped down for Ize-Iyamu recently and it would seem Obaseki is the one who’d have to claw his way to safety.
Genesis
But, why have things changed so much that there is no love lost between the governor and the man who seemingly ‘made’ him? Political feelers from the state indicate that, upon Oshionmhole’s emergence as national chairman of the ruling party, he set about trying to alienate Obaseki from making major decisions in the state – one example is through the delegates’ election and the selection of party candidates in the build-up to the 2019 general election.
Even after the elections, the tussle divided the state assembly, with some pitching their tent with the governor and others taking sides with the party chairman. There were even covert plans to impeach the governor.
Both men would rather not say what the issues are, a number of people have theories on what could be wrong.
A former governorship aspirant of the party in the state, Dr Ilenre Austin Emuan, weighed in.
“What you see is outplay is a naked dance to the dangerous rhythms of disunity. Our party in Edo has never been this divided even when we had no opposition to slow you down. You know we won all the 24 seats in the present state House of Assembly. For some disturbing reasons, we couldn’t manage our successes. And subsequent events have been further too divisive. It’s so unfortunate.”
He went on to pin-point the issues.
“From our governorship primary elections of 2016 to the last congress and the last general elections, there had never been true reconciliation among aggrieved APC members, who had strong reservations on the process that led to the emergence of candidates in the said elections. We carried on like all was well. The product is nothing but perceived exclusion and induced misanthropy amongst members of our party.
“Rather than pause to introspect, re-assess and possibly deconstruct to rebuild broken trusts and stir-up hope, we engaged in self-righteousness. Praise singers, who deserved to be sanctioned for their actions that led to our poor performance in the last presidential and National Assembly elections, concocted votes of confidence and misplaced endorsements on aspirants and erring leaders. Accusations and counter-accusations followed the poorly managed setbacks.”
Emuan insists that the unrestrained ambition of main figures in the party could be the party’s undoing.
Stacking the odds
For most observers, besides the fact that Oshiomhole could be overconfident enough to think of calling the shots for the primaries and, resultantly, the elections, another factor is the willingness of his tools to get to work.
The news making the rounds that other contestants on the party’s cards – Pius Odubu, Chris Ogienwonyi and Charles Airhiavbere, Edebiri, Hon Johnson Agbonyinma, Hon Saturday Uwuilekhue and Fred Amadasun – may have stepped down to give Ize-Iyamu more than a fair shot at the seat may not be totally true. Considering that they may feel it is time to be rewarded for being loyal party men, forcing Ize-Iyamu down their throats as the best bet to beat Obaseki and the PDP could be tantamount to forcing one to take off the blanket on a harmattan morning.
Seeing as his tag as a consensus candidate may not come easy, Ize-Iyamu’s camp is thinking about wooing its way out of this one.
“[our] desire [is] to bring growth and development to Edo State and undo these past few years of disorganization, confusion, and bitter politics that has poisoned our state and sadly relegated actual governance to the background,” said the communications director for the Ize-Iyamu campaign organisation, John Mayaki.
A former commissioner of education in the state, Gideon Obhakhan, did offer some advice to Obaseki, though.
“If I were Governor Godwin Obaseki of Edo State today, I will simply walk away and not participate in the race to return as governor of Edo State for a second tenure. The reason is simple. All odds are against him, he has lost the four Aces and there is no Joker in the pack.
“He has neither the capacity nor the temperament to remedy the situation. As a gallant fighter, I’d rather not be disgraced out of office. I’d take solace in the popular saying that he who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day.”
He examined other factors which Oshiomhole could be using to frustrate the governor.
“Very recently, the National Working Committee (NWC) of APC, in the discharge of their lawful duties, released the timetable for its primaries as well as the mode of primaries.
“They decided that the mode of primaries shall be the direct, which means all card carrying members of APC are expected to come out to vote their preferred candidate on the 22nd of June 2020.
“This decision has surprisingly sparked off some debate across the State with Obaseki and his followers vehemently opposed to it.
“Even the suspended APC State chairman, Anselm Ojezua came out to say he has decided that the mode of primaries shall be indirect and the reason he gave was that it is not safe to conduct direct primaries in the face of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
“The reason he gave has become a source of comic relief for Edo State citizens who are wondering whether or not, INEC will also be advised to conduct indirect elections on September 19, 2020.
“The same government who is talking of the risk of COVID-19 is allowing markets to open and transact their businesses in large numbers when compared to the potential number of party members that will come out for a few hours to exercise their franchise on a chosen date.”
Totally helpless?
But not everyone thinks Obaseki is as helpless as the situation suggests. With friends like the Esama of Benin, Chief Gabriel Igbinedion and Chief Tom Ikimi at his side and singing his praises since his tribulations began, how can anyone bring him down so easily? Also, how willing are they to help when push comes to shove?
A former speaker of the state House of Assembly, Thomas Okosun, is one of those who think the battle of egos is fanned by the party chairman.
“After Oshiomhole won the election, he had no dime. Obaseki raised money for him, before the Igbinedions, Osagie Ize-Iyamu all moved in to put in their money. So, tell me, out of all these people, who is Oshiomhole’s friend today? Who has he shown gratitude? So, this story that he made Obaseki is not true. Obaseki made him.
“When he won the election, Obaseki gave him a blueprint on how to run the state. He couldn’t understand the blueprint, so he pleaded with him to come and be the chairman of his economic team so that he could run the state. Obaseki came to Benin and worked as the chairman of the economic team for eight years without a kobo or allowance. He did it pro-bono. Even Oshiomhole confessed many times that Obaseki was the brain-box and spanner of his administration. This tag that Obaseki is ungrateful and unfit to run the state is not true. Why can’t he leave the governor to run the state to his ability, like he did?
“Obaseki is able to run the state but, how can he concentrate with all this tugging by the side and distractions occasioned by Oshiomhole and his power-hungry horde?”
A little snag
Against the back-drop of insinuations that Oshiomhole is merely using the new entrant to sustain his ego battle against Obaseki, a recent attempt to return Ize-Iyamu as consensus candidate of the Oshiomhole camp hit a brick wall of resistance.
The consensus approach was seen as Edo Peoples’ Movement (EPM)’s and, by extension, Oshiomhole’s best bet to square-up against Obaseki for the APC ticket by ensuring that the delegates’ votes available to their camp is not split.
Although the gladiators have moved over to Abuja to review and re-strategise, mutual suspicion is said to have entered into the group, with fears that some of the aspirants seem to be playing along as contenders while working surreptitiously to Obaseki’s ultimate interest.
PDP ready to pounce
Watching the APC attempt to implode must be something the PDP is relishing in the state, with Kenneth Imansuagbon being the biggest arrow in its quiver. Afterall, he rejoined the PDP in 2018. He must have a plan.
The chairman of the PDP in the state, Anthony Aziegbemi, stated that, even though the party is thinking hard about giving Imansuagbon a waiver, it will not force it down the throats of its other contestants.
“We assure our aspirants of level playfield. The party will make sure that the primary would be credible, free and fair. The issue of waiver is provided in PDP’s constitution, but that is beyond the state chapter. I don’t think Imasuagbon needs a waiver, he has been with us for more than one year,” he told a national daily recently.
While the party is refraining from talking about its opponent’s in-house feuding, it is not over-confident of its chances.
“We are very ready and thinking through the processes, we expect the process to be well managed,” he added.
Whatever happens in September and, inspite of these politically-induced friction, the dream for a prosperous state is not out of the agenda. Edo will work again. And Emuan is positive about this.
“A lot, though, will depend on the type of actors and actresses that we have on the stage of our polity. As long as we have more students of power than students of politics as we do now, it will remain an illusion. Otherwise, prosperous Edo beckons and I can see it clearly on the horizon.”
Whatever happens at the primary on June 22, 14 days away, the die is cast and there will be a lot of surprises – or none, even though everyone knows how this will play out; Oshiomhole gets his wish or he is humbled by Obaseki. There is space for only one scenario.
