Earlier this month, I called on supporters of both party to embrace what I called controlled antagonism as means of saving our democracy. I called on Lagos voters to vote for Akinwunmi Ambode if President Goodluck Jonathan wins the presidential, but that they should vote for Jimi Agbaje, if General Buhari wins.I equally made similar calls on Rivers State and Kano State gubernatorial elections because I see these states as pole states in the Nigerian political mix.
But with General Buhari winning, and the very commendable camaraderie he had with President Jonathan in the last 24 hours, this will pan out differently, not that I am backing down on my earlier call.
If you study the votes that came in from Lagos closely, you will not be too comfortable if you are supporting the APC because the PDP narrowed the lead to just 160,133,while this is a huge number elsewhere, it is not in Lagos.
The turn out in mostly southern states were too poor, and I do not think the story will be different in April 11. But in Lagos, it was dismal because the state has a total of 5,827,846 registered voters, only 1,678,754 were accredited to vote and out of this number, only 1,443,686 were valid votes, with 52,289 as rejected votes.
Lagos will be one of the toughest battlefields on April 11.
The APC is very fortunate to have won the Presidential elections. The boost from therein cannot be over emphasized. Whether you like it or not, the APC has psychologically taken over the reins of government and this will play out during the guber elections.
However, the PDP will fight with the last drop of their blood.Over the last 48 hours. I have encountered several people who said they voted for Buhari, but will vote for Jimi Agbaje in the gubernatorial, their reasons are varied. However, Agbaje’s inability to step down his feet at his Apapa base is giving many of his supporters sleepless nights.His challenge was assuaged by the fact that Ambode escaped by the whiskers in his area.
Realistically speaking, Lagos is no more a one party state, as we used to know it, but to translate this into something tangible, it depends on what magic the PDP can create between now and the elections.
Closely monitoring Jimi Agbaje’s campaign, it is easy to see this ‘confusion’ on what to anchor the campaign on, so he can get the best from both non indigenous Lagosians without slighting the indigenous Yoruba Lagosians.
He started out with Lagos for All, a strategy aimed assuring everyone living in Lagos of ownership. This did not go down well with a cross section of Yoruba intelligentsia who see that as entrenching the ‘no man’s land’ tag some have given Lagos. This forced his campaign team to shift to ‘A Lagos For You”.
Agbaje’s greatest asset now is members of the Lagos business community especially those in small and medium scale businesses who would not like anybody relating to Tinubu or Fashola to become the governor or Lagos. This group have been complaining about the heavy multiple tax burden imposed by the Fashola administration and other unofficial taxes with semi government approvals.They plan a pay back on April 11.
But nothing has buoyed Ambode’s chances in this election more that a Buhari win. And the APC will maximize this to the hilt.Lagos State has been in the opposition since its creation, they have hungered to get into the mainstream which they have achieved with the APC. It is not immodest to say that without Lagos, there wont be the APC, as we know it.
For anybody to expect them to move back to the opposition after getting the centre, will be untenable. But they must work for it, and work they will. The Buhari rub-off will be profound, and both Tinubu and Fashola (the most successful continuity story in Nigeria politics) will do all necessary to ensure an Ambode win.
But it will be a very close call.
South East/South South.
The PDP, and many people in this zone are still licking their wounds from the bruising occasioned by a Buhari win.Most of them still think its a dream. The earlier they wake up and start planning towards April 11,the better for them.
This Zone will reemerge as the most dependable bloc for the PDP in the next few years. Which is a replay of 1998/99.No non PDP gubernatorial contestant will have it easy in this Zone. Moreso, most APC supporters in this Zone are already fatigued by victory. Their stomachs are full by Buhari’s winning,and this will leave the field for the PDP, to use it to re-consolidate.
People like Rochas Okorocha will truly have a tough time scaling through. For people in this zone, allowing a non PDP party to win here will be like adding salt to injury caused by Buhari’s defeat.It will be as hard for Dakuku Peterside in Rivers State. Aside Okorocha and Peterside, other APC guber contestants in the region are also ran.
In the Northern region….
Aside from Plateau and Taraba, PDP candidates will struggle in the other 17 states. Plateau is understandable, same as Taraba, but Nasarawa was a shocker for the APC. PDP’s victory in Nasarawa had a lot to do with internal party wranglings of the APC. But take my word for it, the guber will be a different.
Ripple effect from NASS
With the APC firmly in control of the incoming National Assembly, its contestants who were victorious will be in a better frame of mind to work for the Party in the gubernatorial elections across the nation, than those who lost in the PDP.
Verdict:
Expect an APC government across board. PDP has been pushed into the minority party.
And it is good for democracy. When PDP boasted through Chief Ogbulafor that they will rule for 60 years, it reminded me of the Mexican National Party that ruled for 70 years.
But now, I can heave a sigh of relief.
